Another CME [coronal mass ejection] is coming, but this one might miss. A magnetic filament connected to sunspot AR2882 erupted on Oct. 12th (~0200 UT). The debris is expected to pass in front of Earth on Oct. 15th. The near-miss could spark Arctic auroras, but probably no geomagnetic storm.
Ydun Ritz (2021-10-13)
Solar Cycle 25 continues to overperform. Sunspot counts for Sept. 2021 were the highest in more than 5 years. And, for the 11th month in a row, the sunspot number has significantly exceeded the official forecast.
Mike Terry to WOR iog (2021-10-05)
Minor Geomagnetic Storm Watch.
A CME is approaching Earth for a close encounter on Sept. 17th. It will either miss or deliver a glancing blow. Both outcomes are equally possible given uncertainties in the CME’s trajectory. A hit could spark minor G1-class geomagnetic storms and high-latitude auroras.
Mike Terry to WOR iog (2021-09-16)
A stream of solar wind is approaching Earth. ETA: Aug. 25th.
The gaseous material is flowing from a northern hole in the sun’s atmosphere and could cause polar geomagnetic unrest when it arrives.
Mike Terry to WOR iog (2021-08-23)
Waiting for the CME.
A CME expected to sideswipe Earth’s magnetic field on July 23rd did not arrive on time. It might have missed, or it may yet deliver a glancing blow later today. There is a slight chance of G1-class geomagnetic storms in response to a tardy arrival on July 24th.
Long duration solar flare.
Today began with an explosion on the sun. Minutes after UT midnight, sunspot AR2849 erupted, producing a long-duration C4-class flare. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the ultraviolet flash:An hour-long pulse of X-rays and ultraviolet radiation ionized the top of Earth’s atmosphere, disrupting the usual propagation of radio waves over the Pacific Ocean. Mariners, aviators, and ham radio operators may have noticed sudden drops in signal strength at frequencies below 20 MHz.
Mike Terry to WOR iog (2021-07-24)
Yesterday, sunspot AR2838 burst through the surface of the sun and promptly unleashed the strongest solar flare in 4 years, an X1.5-class explosion. As quickly as it appeared, the sunspot is already gone. On July 4th it rotated over the sun’s northwestern limb and will spend the next two weeks transiting the far side of the sun. If AR2828 holds itself together, it will re-appear on the Earthside in late July.
Mike Terry to WOR iog (2021-07-04)
Is our sun going into hibernation?
Each sunspot cycle has been getting less intense. Is our star falling asleep? Solar activity refers to the state of the sun’s magnetic field and associated phenomena: sunspots, flares, solar wind and coronal ejections. During periods of minimal solar activity, such events are often uncommon and weak. During solar maximum, they’re at their strongest and most frequent. Magnetic field fluctuations on the sun can happen on drastically different timescales, ranging from seconds all the way to billions of years. When astronomers speak of a “slowdown” or a period of quiescence in the sun’s activity, it doesn’t mean the sun will stop shining, but that there’s a slowdown in activity. The sun has one particular rhythm, lasting approximately 11 years, in which its polar magnetic field flips polarity. Sunspots serve as an indicator of this change. Indeed, it’s often known as “the sunspot cycle.”
Mike Terry to WRTH FB group (2021-0-03)
Sunspot AR2816 has produced another solar flare–this time a C3.8-class eruption on April 22nd (0435 UT). A pulse of X-rays and UV radiation ionized the top of Earth’s atmosphere, producing a minor shortwave radio blackout over southeast Asia. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a shock wave rippling away from the blast site; this suggests a CME is heading our way.
Stay tuned for updates.https://spaceweather.com/
Mike Terry to WOR groups.io (2021-04-22)
Solar Maximum might arrive sooner than expected. Recent sunspot counts suggest that new Solar Cycle 25 is over-performing compared to official forecasts, and could peak in 2024 instead of 2025.
See full story here:
Mike Terry in WOR groups.io (2021-04-17)