WEEKEND AURORA OUTLOOK:
Updated modeling by NOAA forecasters suggests that only one CME will pass near Earth in the days ahead. A single glancing blow is expected on Jan. 22nd or 23rd when a CME from the Jan. 18th M1.5-class solar flare arrives. The impact could spark bright auroras inside the Arctic Circle.
Ydun Ritz (2022-01-21)
A CME [coronal mass ejection] might be heading for Earth. It was hurled into space on Jan 14th (1333 UT) by a C4-class explosion in the magnetic canopy of southern sunspot AR2925: movie.
Given the CME’s southern trajectory, much of it will miss Earth. Nevertheless, say NOAA forecasters, a glancing blow is possible late on Jan 16th to midday on Jan. 17th.
Ydun Ritz (2022-01-16)
Between solar wind streams and Solar Cycle 25.
Earth is in a void between solar wind streams. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail until the next stream arrives on Jan. 16th. This forecast could be upended by a solar flare. The sun is dotted with 3 numbered sunspot groups (and a 4th unnumbered region now emerging); unexpected explosions could occur at any time.
Solar Cycle 25 is heating up. New sunspot counts from NOAA confirm that the young solar cycle is outperforming the official forecast. You are here: Sunspot counts have exceeded predictions for 15 straight months. The monthly value at the end of December 2021 was more than twice the forecast, and the highest in more than 5 years. The “official forecast” comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and International Space Environmental Services (ISES). Using a variety of leading indicators, the Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger.
Mike Terry to WOR iog (2022-01-12)
Solar flare activity intensifies:
Suddenly, rash-like sunspot AR2918 is crackling with M-class solar flares. There have been two so far today (0401 UT & 1611 UT). The flares produced brief shortwave radio blackouts over Australia and South America. Stay tuned for updates about possible CMEs.
Ydun Ritz (2021-12-28)
Chance of Christmas storms (Updated):
Multiple M-class solar flares this week have hurled at least two faint CMEs toward Earth. NOAA forecast models predict glancing blows on Dec. 24th and 25th. The impacts, albeit weak, could combine to produce G1-class geomagnetic storms and high-latitude auroras during the Christmas holiday.
Ydun Ritz (2021-12-24)
GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A CME is heading for Earth. The storm cloud left the sun on Dec. 20th (1136 UT), propelled by an M1.9-classsolarflare in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2908. NOAA forecasters expect a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Dec. 23rd, possibly sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm. Christmas Lights, anyone?
Ydun Ritz (2021-12-21)
CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY.
NOAA forecasters say there is a 25% chance of M-class solar flares today. The likely source, sunspot complex AR2907-09, is almost directly facing Earth, which means any explosions would be geoeffective.
Ydun Ritz (2021-12-19)
FAST-GROWING SUNSPOTS: Multiple large sunspots are growing near the sun’s southeastern limb.
The phalanx of dark cores is turning toward Earth, boosting the chances for an geoeffective eruption in the days ahead. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of M-class solar flares on Dec. 16th.
Ydun Ritz (2021-12-16)
Minor geomagnetic storms are possible on Dec. 3rd when a CME might sideswipe Earth’s magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled into space on Nov. 29th by an erupting filament of magnetism in the sun’s southern hemisphere. According to NOAA computer models, the bulk of the CME should sail south of our planet with a near miss just as likely as a glancing blow.
Ydun Ritz (2021-12-02)
Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from a southern hole in the sun’s atmosphere. With wind speeds near 600 km/s, the stream is causing minor geomagnetic unrest around the Arctic Circle. Polar auroras are likely on Nov. 17th.
Ydun Ritz (2021-11-17)